Facing widespread allegations of corruption, President Asif Ali Zardari is reviled by many in his own country. He is, however, seen in India as perhaps the first Pakistani politician to understand the importance of economic integration with India, as an important measure to address Pakistan's endemic economic problems. The powerful military establishment in Pakistan believes that placing restrictions on imports from India and denying investment opportunities for Indian business will compel India to yield to its wishes on differences over issues such as Jammu and Kashmir. Sections of the business community in Pakistan also believe that cheap imports from India could hurt domestic industry and disrupt existing business ties of imports from other countries.
But Mr Zardari shares the belief of most eminent Pakistani economists that access to India's markets will hugely benefit Pakistan's industries and the agricultural sector in the long run. Pakistan is the only South Asian country not implementing the provisions of the South Asian Free Trade Agreement, by its restrictions on imports from India.
Within two months of assuming office in 2008, Mr Zardari was confronted with a huge crisis in relations with India. Members of Lashkar-e-Taiba launched a sea-borne terrorist attack that killed 166 people in Mumbai. India proposed that Mr Zardari depute the head of the ISI to discuss the issue. While Zardari readily agreed to send his intelligence Chief Lt. General Shuja Pasha to India, the Army establishment, led by Army Chief General Ashfaq Pervez Kayani, refused to carry out the President's wishes. The stage was set for a very tense and tenuous relationship between the military on the one hand and the elected civilian government on the other, on issues pertaining to relations with India, Afghanistan and the United States.
Under pressure from the military, Mr Zardari was forced to cede his position as head of the country's Nuclear Command Authority to the Prime Minister. His suggestion for a 'no first use agreement' with India on the deployment of nuclear weapons was shot down by the military.
The most important cause for Mr Zardari's differences with his powerful military establishment has been his aversion for radical, Wahhabi-oriented Islamist groups like Lashkar-e-Taiba and Jaish-e-Mohammed, not to mention the Taliban-style organizations in Afghanistan and Pakistan. The army establishment, however, regarded these groups as 'assets' to 'bleed' India and obtain 'strategic depth' in Afghanistan. The President also found himself in a very difficult position when, rather than accepting its complicity in harbouring Osama bin Laden, the world's most wanted international terrorist, the military establishment chose to divert attention by raising anti-American passions in the country after bin Laden was killed in a raid by American Special Forces in the heavily guarded cantonment town of Abbotabad.
President Zardari was under constant siege not only from his Army Chief General Ashfaq Pervez Kayani, but also from the country's mercurial Chief Justice Iftikhar Chaudhury. The Chief Justice bears a deep grudge against the President, because of the latter's disinclination to restore him to office after he was summarily sacked by President Musharraf in 2007. The empathy between the Chief Justice and General Kayani goes back to the day when, as DG (ISI), then Lt. General Kayani was the only army officer close to Musharraf who did not harangue the Chief Justice when Musharraf summoned and summarily sacked him in 2007. Moreover, while ostensibly championing democratic freedoms, Justice Iftikhar Chaudhury was actually one of the first judges to sanctify the military coup by General Musharraf in October 1999. He was then Chief Justice of the Baluchistan High Court.
The Chief Justice has moved very warily in dealing with serving army officers. He has, however, not hesitated to sack or indict Prime Ministers on allegations of Contempt of Court or corruption. Prime Minister Yousuf Raza Gilani was forced out of office for refusing to approach Swiss authorities to reopen an investigation against President Zardari on charges of money laundering. The Chief Justice then ordered the arrest of the present Prime Minister, Raja Pervaiz Ashraf, on allegations of corruption, even while he looked the other way at allegations of kickbacks and illegal cash transfers in shady property deals by his son Arsalan Iftikhar. Moreover, General Kayani himself now has a tainted reputation, even within the ranks of the army, because of serious allegations of corruption and irregularities on transit of NATO supplies against his brother.
President Zardari's troubles have been compounded by the strange and unexpected return to Pakistan of Maulana Tahir ul Qadri, a Barelvi (Sufi) cleric who controls a vast network of charities, running hundreds of schools, colleges, libraries and medical facilities, primarily in the populous army-dominated Punjab Province. There is a widespread feeling in Pakistan that Maulana Qadri is really acting at the behest of the Chief Justice and the military establishment to get the current government replaced with an Interim Administration appointed by the Judiciary and the army. Faced with the challenge posed by Maulana Qadri, the ruling Pakistan People's Party and its coalition partners joined hands with the opposition to announce that steps will be taken for an Interim Government to take charge by March 16, so that elections can be held by June. The only redeeming feature that gives a measure of confidence in the smooth continuation of Parliamentary Democracy in Pakistan is the presence of the highly respected Justice Fakhruddin Ebrahim to oversee the conduct of free and fair elections as the Chief Election Commissioner.
In the meantime, tensions across the Line of Control in Jammu and Kashmir suddenly escalated, with a ceasefire that had been in force since November 2003 being disrupted. India is also getting into election mode, as preparations are underway for parliamentary elections scheduled for the first half of 2014. The Manmohan Singh Government has faced strong domestic criticism for allegedly not acting firmly to deal with issues pertaining to the Mumbai terrorist attack of November 2008. The belief is growing in India that Pakistan has no intention of bringing the perpetrators of the 26/11 terrorist attack to justice. Defence Minister A K Anthony, who is one of the senior most Cabinet Ministers and generally given to being very reticent, has remarked: 'Lots of promises were made (by Pakistan). Those promises have to be translated into action. We will have to wait and watch. We should not take any serious steps till those promises are translated into action.'
Defence Minister Anthony was referring to the assurance given by General Musharraf on January 4, 2004 to then Prime Minister Atal Bihari Vajpayee that 'territory under Pakistan's control' would not be used for terrorism against India. It was only on the basis of that assurance that the 'Composite Dialogue Process', which had stalled after the 1999 Kargil conflict, was resumed with Pakistan.
It does appear that in these circumstances, any plans for major moves forward in relations with Pakistan will be put on hold, as both governments get increasingly involved in domestic electoral politics. It remains to be seen if the two countries can work out further confidence-building measures and keep up the existing momentum in expanding trade and people-to-people contacts, as they proceed with electing new governments. There are mechanisms in place between the military establishments and foreign offices to deal with any untoward developments.
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