ISLAMABAD: More than twenty independents from amongst hundreds of such party-less contestants, who are likely to return, coupled with the winners of smaller parties, are going to play a decisive role in the formation of the next federal government should the May 11 elections throw up a split mandate, writes Tariq Butt.
In the 2008 polls, a total of twenty-three independents originally succeeded. Most of them subsequently went with the Pakistan Peoples Party (PPP) led coalition.
At the time, the maximum number of independents from amongst the winners, 13, came from Punjab followed by six from the Federally Administered Tribal Areas (FATA), two from Balochistan and one each from Sindh and Khyber-Pakhtunkhwa (KP).
It is obligatory for a contesting party to bag at least 137 directly fought seats out of a total of 272 to become the single largest force in the National Assembly. If any party was successful in securing something even near to this tally, smaller groups would race towards it to join hands because it would be a foregone conclusion that it would clinch power.
Under the law, every returned independent is essentially required to be associated with a parliamentary party of his choice within three days after which he would be treated as having won on its ticket. In that case, defection clause will be applicable to him as well.
The law says if an independent winner doesn’t join a political party within the appointed time, he would have this status for the whole life of the concerned national or provincial assembly.Scrutiny of the competitors show that this time independent winners may be in the same number like that of 2008, if not more as several powerful figures have opted for not getting the sponsorship of any political party for their reasons.
Like the past, the returned independents would prefer to be affiliated with a party that would emerge as the single largest parliamentary force having the potential of forming government. They will not side with it for a song, but would support it only after their sets of demands, mostly cabinet positions, would be accepted.
In the past, it generally happened that top leaders of a political party, which turned out to be the largest in the National Assembly, approached the independent winners to squeeze commitments from them the same night unofficial results were available.
Apart from the independent victors, the parties like Maulana Fazlur Rehman’s Jamiat Ulemae Islam (JUI), Pir Pagara-led coalition in Sindh, Awami National Party (ANP), Muttahidda Qaumi Movement (MQM), PML-Q, and Balochistan parties will have a pivotal role in the formation of government.
“When some elements assert that the May 11 exercise will produce a hung parliament, they are in fact struggling to cut down the prospects of our party to secure a dominant majority,” a senior PML-Nawaz leader commented.
In some cases, a few leading political parties have deliberately not fielded candidates in certain constituencies with the objective of extending a helping hand to a handful of independents to win with the promise that they would stand with them after their success.This is the first time that some political parties including the JUI, Jamaat-e-Islami, ANP and Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI) have put forward candidates in FATA as well.
In the 2008 polls, a total of twenty-three independents originally succeeded. Most of them subsequently went with the Pakistan Peoples Party (PPP) led coalition.
At the time, the maximum number of independents from amongst the winners, 13, came from Punjab followed by six from the Federally Administered Tribal Areas (FATA), two from Balochistan and one each from Sindh and Khyber-Pakhtunkhwa (KP).
It is obligatory for a contesting party to bag at least 137 directly fought seats out of a total of 272 to become the single largest force in the National Assembly. If any party was successful in securing something even near to this tally, smaller groups would race towards it to join hands because it would be a foregone conclusion that it would clinch power.
Under the law, every returned independent is essentially required to be associated with a parliamentary party of his choice within three days after which he would be treated as having won on its ticket. In that case, defection clause will be applicable to him as well.
The law says if an independent winner doesn’t join a political party within the appointed time, he would have this status for the whole life of the concerned national or provincial assembly.Scrutiny of the competitors show that this time independent winners may be in the same number like that of 2008, if not more as several powerful figures have opted for not getting the sponsorship of any political party for their reasons.
Like the past, the returned independents would prefer to be affiliated with a party that would emerge as the single largest parliamentary force having the potential of forming government. They will not side with it for a song, but would support it only after their sets of demands, mostly cabinet positions, would be accepted.
In the past, it generally happened that top leaders of a political party, which turned out to be the largest in the National Assembly, approached the independent winners to squeeze commitments from them the same night unofficial results were available.
Apart from the independent victors, the parties like Maulana Fazlur Rehman’s Jamiat Ulemae Islam (JUI), Pir Pagara-led coalition in Sindh, Awami National Party (ANP), Muttahidda Qaumi Movement (MQM), PML-Q, and Balochistan parties will have a pivotal role in the formation of government.
“When some elements assert that the May 11 exercise will produce a hung parliament, they are in fact struggling to cut down the prospects of our party to secure a dominant majority,” a senior PML-Nawaz leader commented.
In some cases, a few leading political parties have deliberately not fielded candidates in certain constituencies with the objective of extending a helping hand to a handful of independents to win with the promise that they would stand with them after their success.This is the first time that some political parties including the JUI, Jamaat-e-Islami, ANP and Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI) have put forward candidates in FATA as well.
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